The bearish sentiment toward ether (ETH) remains pronounced relative to bitcoin (BTC) even as DeFi enthusiast Republican candidate Donald Trump extends his lead over Democrat rival Kamala Harris in prediction markets tied to the outcome of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.
At press time, ether’s 25-delta risk reversals for shorter and longer duration expiries were more negative than bitcoin’s, according to data sources Amberdata and Deribit. That’s a sign of stronger bearish sentiment toward the native token of the Ethereum blockchain, which dominates in decentralized finance (DeFi).
Risk reversals measure the premium required to hold a call option relative to a put. Negative values suggest a bias for put options, which reflect expectations of a price drop in the underlying asset.
Traders often use options to hedge their spot/futures market exposure. Therefore, a trader with a bullish spot/futures bet may buy a put option when expecting downside volatility. Both bitcoin and ether traders seem to be doing just that, with ether traders displaying a stronger inclination to mitigate potential downside risks.
The risk reversal for Oct. 11 ether options is -7.3%, while bitcoin’s is -5.8%. A similar pattern is observed for expiries up to the end of October.
A curious pattern has emerged: While BTC risk reversals are positive for Nov. 8 and beyond, ether’s don’t turn bullish until late December. In other words, traders expect upside volatility in BTC once the election results are out on Nov. 8. Ether isn’t expected to turn the corner until later.
DEX traders see limited upside in ETH
On the dominant decentralized exchange (DEX) Derive, Ethereum call options saw a 2.5:1 sell-to-buy ratio in September. The flow was much more balanced in bitcoin options.
The relatively greater interest in writing (selling) ether calls means traders do not foresee a notable upside volatility in the cryptocurrency.
“The skew in ETH open interest, with nearly 2.5 times more calls sold than bought, suggests that traders see the upside as limited for now. This divergence between the two assets will be key to watch as we get closer to election day,” Nick Forster, founder of Derive, told CoinDesk in an exclusive monthly report.
Trump’s lead widens
Trump’s odds of winning the election soared to a two-month high of 55.8% on prediction platform Polymarket, leaving Harris behind at 43.8%.
The popular narrative is that a potential Trump win would be positive for both BTC and DeFi. The perception likely stems from Trump’s decision to debut DeFi protocol World Liberty Financial in September.
On Oct. 9, the protocol submitted a proposal on Aave to link the two projects, focused on providing stablecoin liquidity for ETH and WBTC and growing Aave’s user base.
Still, some observers, including Standard Chartered, say a Trump victory would be better for Ethereum rival Solana, and Ethereum will prosper more under Harris’ presidency.